WASHINGTON - The US government believes Fidel Castro's
health is deteriorating and that the Cuban leader is unlikely to live through
2007.
In this photograph provided by Cuba's Juventud
Rebelde newspaper Sunday, Oct. 29, 2006, Cuban leader Fidel Castro speaks
on the telephone Saturday, Oct. 28, 2006.. Castro's health is believed by
U. S. officials to be deteriorating and the 79-year-old Cuban leader, who
may have terminal cancer, is not expected to live through 2007. [AP]
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That dire view was reinforced last week when Cuba's foreign minister backed
away from his prediction the ailing Castro would return to power by early
December. "It's a subject on which I don't want to speculate," Felipe Perez
Roque told The Associated Press in Havana.
US government officials say there is still some mystery about Castro's
diagnosis, his treatment and how he is responding. But these officials believe
the 80-year-old leader has cancer of the stomach, colon or pancreas.
He was seen weakened and thinner in official state photos released late last
month, and it is considered unlikely that he will return to power or survive
through the end of next year, said the US government and defense officials.
They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak
publicly about the politically sensitive topic.
With chemotherapy, Castro may live up to 18 months, said the defense
official. Without it, expected survival would drop to three months to eight
months.
American officials will not talk publicly about how they glean clues to
Castro's health. But US spy agencies include physicians who study pictures,
video, public statements and other information coming out of Cuba.
A planned celebration of Castro's 80th birthday next month is expected to
draw international attention. The Cuban leader had planned to attend the public
event, which already had been postponed once from his Aug. 13
birthday.