Delays mean more loss of life and poverty from disasters, disease and agricultural decline

Climate records for Kenya indicate that the country's surface air temperature has increased by 1C to 2C on average, while drought and floods have become more severe and frequent in all of Eastern Africa.

This is expected to have a wide range of health impacts. The effects can be direct (heat, drought and floods) or indirect (effects on ecological and social systems resulting in changes in infectious diseases, food production and nutritional status).

It is known that most of the diseases prevalent in the country and in Eastern Africa are generally very sensitive to changes in weather/climate parameters. High temperatures and humidity will favor a high rate of multiplication of both vectors and parasites. This is likely to open up new territories favorable for diseases like malaria, especially the highland areas of the region, rendering vast populations in these areas vulnerable.

Water scarcity on the other hand will lead to the use of sources of water such as rivers, which may be contaminated. Heavy rains can lead to contamination of water sources, blockage of sewers due to siltation, and open drains and a raised ground water table causing the collapse and overflow of pit latrines. These conditions lead to an increase in water-borne diseases.

More climate-related disasters such as storms may have long-term effects on mental health, and people may experience anxiety or depression for some time afterward.

Security can be looked at in terms of settlement patterns and shared resources. Some shared resources such as water and pasture have already been affected negatively, leading to conflicts between humans themselves as well as conflicts between humans and wildlife. This is a clear signal of insecurity among the region's people. With projected climate change, the dwindling of these resources is expected to worsen, thus a likelihood of increased insecurity from climate change-related impacts.

Floods, landslides, strong winds and lighting strikes are the hazards most commonly associated with the changing climate. The impacts are enormous as they include destruction of property, injuries and deaths depending on the vulnerability levels of the affected populations. For example, communities settled in flood plains, coastal areas and steep slopes are more exposed to these hazards.

The livelihoods of a majority of people in this region are based on agriculture (generally crop farming and livestock keeping) mainly for food and cash for other businesses. Agriculture and food security generally determine the livelihoods of the majority in the region. The changing patterns of climate therefore can have a profound impact. The prevailing climate determines not only the spatial extent but also the duration of agricultural activities. Conditions of temperature and rainfall among other climatic factors dictate the performance of both crops and livestock - low temperatures may lead to delays in maturity of cereal crops and crop losses; high temperatures coupled with high humidity may favor proliferation of insect pests and higher incidence of plant pathogens.

The impact on crops may include rainfall failure at any stage of crop growth resulting in crop failure; late onset of rains causing a short growing season and leading to poor yields; drought depriving, households of sufficient food stocks to see them through the next season's harvest; frost causing morphological and physiological damage to crops resulting in poor or no yields for a given season; floods leaching soil; rendering it infertile and resulting in poor yields. Floods also cause physical damage to crops, affecting the final yields.

There are diseases and pests that occur after drought, floods and other weather events. For example, armyworm infestations are associated with prolonged drought followed by adequate rains. Disease and pests on crops can result in total loss or poor yields. If controlled by use of pesticides, the producer is left poorer due to the cost of the pesticide.

Livestock production is based on availability of pasture/browse and water. Drought leads to poor and inadequate pasture resulting in poor livestock conditions due to insufficient feed. Nomadic pastoralists therefore move with livestock out of their normal grazing areas in search of pasture and water. Floods kill livestock and promote outbreak of killer diseases such as pneumonia, Rift Valley fever and the blue tongue. Floods also cause soil nutrient leaching and vegetation death due to root suffocation. When livestock is adversely affected, food security is threatened due to loss of the industry's food contribution in terms of livestock and livestock products

Given that climate change is happening, measures to help people adapt to it are essential. And the less mitigation we do now, the greater the difficulty of adapting in future.

The ability to adapt to increasing climate variability depends on planning systems that take into account the impact of climate on development, hence the necessity of strengthened systems for coping with climate variability and reducing vulnerability, and integration of these into planning.

Based on an understanding of vulnerabilities, capacities and risks, support can build on people's local means of coping with risk. This might include income-generating activities to allow for cash purchases as a form of coping with climate variation.

What is happening in Asia is also currently being experienced in many regions of Africa. The lesson to be learnt here is that the magnitude of the impact being felt is somewhat higher in Asia than Africa, probably due to a higher population in Asia that is vulnerable compared to that in Africa. Africa therefore needs to put measures in place to mitigate the impacts before they reach the scale of those in Asia.

Weather and climate have no boundaries and therefore whatever happens in Asia, Europe or America has a bearing to what happens in Africa. In this regard, the strength of the monsoon winds blowing over East Africa is determined by the pressure differences between the Asian continent and the southern hemisphere. Such pressures are a function of the prevailing temperatures in the regions and it is well known that the monsoon winds are generally associated with rainfall over East Africa. Hence their strengths and tracks (over land or over ocean) will determine the amount and intensity of rainfall received in East Africa. Temperatures prevailing over the Indian Ocean and in particular close to the Indonesian archipelago also dictate the rainfall characteristics in East Africa because the ocean is the main source of moisture.

The author is senior assistant director of Forecasting Services of Kenya Meteorological Department. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.