Banks clearly shaping up as fears of nasty surprises fade
Updated: 2016-08-05 07:56
(HK Edition)
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The big sell-off in bank shares in the past few months may be tapering off. HSBC continued to gain ground in trading on the Hong Kong bourse on Thursday, while Standard Chartered shares jumped more than 6 percent from Wednesday's low in London after announcing further progress in profitability for the first half of this year.
Stock analysts now say that, at current prices, banks look like reasonable buys with the economy showing signs of a recovery from the sharp downturn in the first six months. More important is that most of the larger banks with a substantial overseas exposure are seen to have made sufficient charges for doubtful loans and other contingent liabilities. For that reason, the fear of nasty surprises that can hit their future earnings has been greatly mitigated.
But, the pace of recovery has remained slow, and the low interest-rate environment is expected to continue piling pressure on banks' profit margins. Banks are also facing stiff competition from many aggressive lending companies for the relatively more lucrative personal-loan business.
At the same time, the property market's recovery, marked by rising homes prices and increased turnover in both the primary and secondary markets, is pushing up demand for mortgage loans - a staple of many banks' domestic lending business. Some key lenders have trimmed the spread over the interbank rate to squeeze out the smaller competitors in mortgage lending.
The big banks with extensive branch networks in Hong Kong can afford to do so because their real cost of funds is the rate they pay depositors. The deposit rate is usually lower than the interbank rate at which banks lend to each other.
Meanwhile, the stock market has staged a rally since early last month. A buoyant stock market, originally fueled, at least partly, by an influx of overseas capital, is poised to attract even more foreign investment funds. Although the rally's sustainability is still questioned by stock analysts, recent market sentiment has improved markedly.
The bullish outlook is generating an increase in investment activities which can help boost the fee-based income of banks in coming months.
(HK Edition 08/05/2016 page8)