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India's economy grows 7.4 percent
(Agencies)
Updated: 2004-10-01 14:13

India's economy expanded 7.4 percent in the April-June quarter, surpassing expectations and prompting some economists to revise their full-year growth forecasts.

The latest government data, released Thursday, showed that a pickup in new investments by Indian businesses and brisk growth in the services sector led the economy's expansion.

Domestic companies have been bullish on new projects since India's gross domestic product - the total value of goods and services produced by a country - expanded 8.2 percent in the last fiscal year, its highest growth rate in 15 years.

During the April-June period, this fiscal year's first quarter, manufacturing output increased 8 percent. On the services side, trade, hotels and transportation grew 11 percent, compared with the same period a year earlier, said the Central Statistical Organization. Agriculture grew 3.4 percent.

The stock market cheered the news and the benchmark index of the Bombay Stock Exchange, the Sensex, closed 56 points, or 1 percent, higher Thursday. In early trading Friday, the market was bullish.

Even though ``agriculture output is below trend, it is heartening to see that the cyclical momentum (in industry and services) continues to be strong,'' Kishlaya Pathak, an economist with Standard Chartered Bank, told Dow Jones Newswires.

Several economists and research bodies earlier predicted that economic growth for the fiscal year ending March 2005 would be significantly lower than during last year, because of a drought in some parts of the country and high oil prices that have pushed up inflation.

The government has said it would be happy to see growth touch 6.5 percent this year.

But the first fiscal figures have raised hopes that stronger growth in manufacturing and services will more than offset the impact of a bad crop.

The industrial and services sectors account for 75 percent of India's GDP, while the farm sector _ which employs nearly two-thirds of the country's work force _ contributes a quarter of the national output.

``Services and manufacturing will be the key growth drivers,'' Pathak said, adding that he planned to revise upward his earlier full-year growth estimate of 6 percent.

Some analysts believe high oil prices and inflation will not harm growth as much as earlier feared.

``The impact of the monsoon and oil prices is overestimated,'' said Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, emerging market strategist at Barclays Capital in Singapore. ``We haven't yet seen the impact of the weak monsoon season, but I think we will continue to be surprised on the upside.''

Dwor-Frecaut expects India's economy to expand 7.5 percent this year.


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