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German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder faces possible embarrassment in parliament on Friday if left-wing rebels from his coalition carry out their threats to vote against his amended economic reform package.

German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder faces possible embarrassment in parliament Friday if left-wing rebels from his coalition carry out their threats to vote against his amended economic reform package. Schroeder is shown in a limousine in Berlin, Dec. 15, 2003.   [Reuters]

Both houses of parliament are certain to rubber-stamp his "Agenda 2010" of tax cuts and welfare reforms, amended by the powerful conservatives in marathon talks that ended on Monday, because opposition deputies will vote for the compromise deal.

But a handful of left-wingers from his coalition of Social Democrats and Greens have said they will vote against some of the legislation being voted on, because the conservatives have made it tougher on the unemployed than Schroeder envisaged.

In a marathon session, there will be 17 votes on the various reform laws in the Bundestag lower house of parliament.

If enough SPD rebels vote "No,," and fewer of his deputies back the legislation than opposition deputies, Schroeder would effectively be deprived of his own majority.

"Failure to get his own majority won't bring down the government and he'll play it down," said Frank Decker, political scientist at Bonn University. "But it would be a sign that he can't get much more through on the reform front."

The legislation represents Germany's biggest welfare state overhaul since World War II. France and Italy are planning similar measures to cope with aging populations.

Schroeder had hoped to fuel a nascent recovery in Germany by bringing forward 15.6 billion euros of tax cuts.

But the conservatives used their majority in the Bundesrat upper house to force him to cut taxes by only half as much to avoid running up too much debt.

Schroeder only has nine seats more than the opposition in the Bundestag. Some 10 coalition deputies have said they either plan to or will definitely vote against the package. Much depends on how many deputies turn up to vote, however.

Their will be a concurrent sitting in the Bundesrat to approve the legislation.

NO RESIGNATION THREAT

Having to rely on opposition votes would expose Schroeder to accusations from the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) that he doesn't have his own party's backing anymore.

Schroeder threatened repeatedly to resign this year to enforce his coalition's support for benefit cuts and labor reforms the left wing of his Social Democrats (SPD) saw as a betrayal of their voters and their principles.

That prompted left-wingers to back him in previous parliamentary votes on the reforms.

This time is different, however. Schroeder has said he wants his own majority but has not renewed his resignation threat, and most commentators say he can afford a few stragglers given that parliamentary backing for the reforms will be overwhelming.

Besides, the amendments were forced upon him by the CDU, so rejecting them does not amount to rejecting Schroeder.

Liberal daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung said this week that the SPD had already given its backing to his reform plans at a party congress in November.

"The Bundestag, the SPD and even the opposition stand behind the laws to be voted on Friday. That's a clear majority," the paper said in a commentary.

The main bone of contention for left-wingers lies in amendments that loosen protection from dismissal and impose penalties on the long-term unemployed who refuse work paying wages below the local average. "I can't agree to an Americanization of our labor market," left-wing SPD deputy Horst Schmidbauer said this week.

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